Australia's Opposition Opportunity
The Oncoming Tidal Wave of Conservative State Election Wins
It's hard to see, but the conditions are right for the Liberal-National Coalition parties to defeat incumbent Labor governments state elections in all over Australia.
Now that the hangover from their federal election loss is over, supporters of the conservative Liberal-National Coalition should be licking their chops in anticipation of victories all around Australia. The Coalition is in opposition in every state and territory, but now have every chance of taking government.
The main reason why the Liberal and National parties can feel confident is, simply, time. By their next elections, Labor will have been in power over a decade in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania. No government, however competent, humble and in touch, can last for that amount of time without disappointing everyone at some point – and each disappointment makes it easier for supporters to lose heart, opponents to become more determined and swinging voters to look at their alternatives. This is why the Coalition lost federally last November, and why Labor will have a tough time in its next state campaigns.
Secondly, Labor is now in power federally. Until 24 November 2007, no government had lost an election since 2002. Twenty-three consecutive losses all around the country might have left state Liberal and National supporters wondering whether they would ever regain power. But thanks to new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, the perceived invincibility of incumbency has now been destroyed.
Labor's federal victory spells further trouble for its state parties. As in the United States, where midterm and state elections are generally used to vote against the party in the White House, Australians are reluctant to hand too much power to either Labor or the Coalition. Now that Australia is run entirely by the Labor Party, voters will restore the balance by supporting the Liberals and Nationals at the state level.
Even more worrying for state governments is they have lost their scapegoat. For the past decade, state Labor and federal Coalition have made a sport of blaming each other for any problem. That game is now over, and while Kevin Rudd's team will be granted a honeymoon period for scandals and failures, the Australian people will not be so kind to decade-old governments.
A number of recent polls, particularly in Victoria, may make it seem unlikely that any opposition has any hope of toppling the incumbent. But the deck is stacked entirely in the Coalition's favour. Of course, their victories will not happen by themselves; as always, hard work and attractive campaigns will be needed. But the times, they are a-changin'.
Upcoming State/Territory Elections in Australia:
Australian Capital Territory – October 2008
New South Wales – 2011
Northern Territory – 2009
Queensland – 2009
South Australia – 2010
Tasmania – 2010
Victoria – 2010
Western Australia – 2009
