Peter Costello: Australia's PM?
Australia's Political Bridesmaid Has A Great Chance To Go One Better
Always a runner-up in politics, Peter Costello could still prove the doubters wrong and become Prime Minister of Australia - if he's prepared to do what it takes.
Last November, former Treasure of Australia Peter Costello surprised many by declining to stand for the leadership of the Liberal Party following their federal election loss. Having been Deputy Leader since 1994, he was the heir apparent and widely-presumed successor of former Prime Minister John Howard.
But he refused to seek the post, and has since dropped hints he will leave politics altogether. This is a shame for him, because he has the ability to prove the doubters wrong and take the top job. It would require patience, humility and cunning, but, most of all, Costello himself would have to decide whether he really did want the job.
Thus far, Costello's campaign has seen one good move and one mistake. He was absolutely right not to seek the leadership – it would be an almost-impossible task to defeat a first-term government, particularly with as popular a Prime Minister as Kevin Rudd. Costello's task would have been all the harder since he was a principal figure in the previous government, and would have reminded people why they voted against it.
Costello's mistake was not to portray his move to the backbench as a deliberate decision to pay more attention to Higgins, his seat in Parliament. Instead, he insulted the very people who had just re-elected him by indicating they came second to lucrative private-sector salaries. Higgins should have been Costello's base, but he will now have to mend fences to prevent challenges from ambitious local candidates.
Had he played this car differently, Higgins it would have seen the start of a new Peter Costello. Gone would be the arrogant `Captain Smirk' – we would meet humble Peter with a ready ear and a passion for local politics and the problems faced by everyday people.
From there, and after the 2010 election loss, he could have sought a Mickey Mouse frontbench post. Shadow Minister for Industry and Jobs (or something equally vague) would suit perfectly – Costello would travel the country, again listening as people complained about the economy, hospital waiting lists and the environment. By this time, the Rudd government would have lots its halo, and Costello could gently tell people about the great economy he forged as Treasurer, thereby reminding voters as to his abilities and time in government.
After another election loss for the Liberal-National Coalition, the party room could be encouraged to turn to the voice of experience. Peter Costello would take the chance to denounce some of the party's more extreme and unpopular policies, portraying himself as in touch with the people and a strong leader able to remodel his party. Through a combination of populism and caution, Costello could take the Liberals to victory in 2016, and finally achieve the title he has coveted for so long.
There is still time, and political junkies will note that this hypothetical path is similar to that trod by John Howard before he won the 1996 federal election. But the key question is whether Costello has the fire in his belly. For years there have been doubts as to whether he had the guts to take the leadership; if Costello quits, those doubts will be proven right. But if he really does want the job, it's there for the taking.
